The Best Hollywood blockbusters in history typically come in the form of trilogies. The first and second films build the audience’s anticipation for the climactic finish in the third sequel. In the 2021-2022 season, the Patriots and the Bills will treat the football world to an epic trilogy. In week 13, the Patriots put in a historic rushing effort, and a stingy defense held on for a close win on the road to strike the first blow. In week 16, the Bills struck back behind a dominant performance by quarterback Josh Allen to gain the upper hand in the division and ultimately win it. In primetime on Saturday, January 15, the football world will tune in to see, who will make the decisive blow in round 3 in this heated rivalry? In this article, we preview the game plans of both, look at an important stat, weather forecast and make a prediction.
1. The Bills-Josh Allen will want to bottle what happened in week 16 and pour it on the field in this matchup. On that Sunday afternoon, he was spectacular in passing for 314 yards and three touchdowns with 64 yards on the ground. The matchup that is always to watch when these two teams square off is Stefon Diggs versus JC Jackson. Diggs won the matchup slightly in week 16 with seven catches for 85 yards but it took 13 targets to get his numbers. Jackson also disrupted a pass and dropped a potential momentum-changing interception. The Patriots defense needs to generate more pressure on the quarterback than what they produced in the last matchup. The unit had 0 sacks at home, and Allen seemed to have all the time in the world to make throws or run the football. The defense is at its best when they force turnovers from their opposition.
2. The Patriots-Mac Jones struggled in the week 16 matchup passing for only 145 yards and two interceptions. Last week against the Dolphins, he started slowly by throwing a pick-six interception to get his team off to a rough start. He did get better in the second half and had his team in a position to win. Jones will face a stout Bills defense ranked number 1 in the passing game in almost every statistical category. This season the unit has allowed only three quarterbacks to exceed 220 passing yards. Last week, the defense pummeled Zach Wilson for nine sacks. The Patriots will try to exploit the Bills’ deficiency in stopping the run because in week 13 the team ran it 46 times for 222 yards. In their week 16 loss, Harris still had 103 yards on 18 carries.
3. Stat-in their week 16 matchup, the Patriots’ offense went 1 of 10 on 4th down. The team is ranked 10th in 3rd down conversion and 11th in red-zone conversion. The offense will need to improve their performance on 3rd down and get closer to their mean if they win this game.
4. Weather-in week 13, the teams played in the stadium with 40 mph wind affecting the passing and kicking game. On Saturday, the weather forecasters are predicting a 30% chance of snow showers between 9 am and 1 pm. By the kick-off time at 8:15 pm, the weather will be cloudy, cold, and a high near 9 degrees. The low will dip down to about zero. Therefore, with a calm eight-mile-per-hour wind, the wind chill will make the temperature feel like minus 8.
5. Prediction-Josh Allen had to play like superman for the Bills to win in week 16. However, I think Bill Belichick will scheme a better way to get pressure on the quarterback. The weather will give the Patriots have a slight advantage in their propensity to run the football. The key for this game is the team starting fast and getting ahead as they did in week 13. I have the Patriots winning this game in a thriller and containing Allen just enough.
Final Score-Patriots 21-Bills 19
