After an enthralling divisional round, the field has narrowed to 4 teams in the pursuit of the Lombardi Trophy. In today’s world, there is an expression, “Familiarity breeds contempt.” The beauty of the matchups in both conferences is that these teams have a history of playing each other. The NFC matchup involves divisional opponents, while in the AFC, the Kansas City Chiefs have stood in the Buffalo Bills’ path to immortality in the sport. In this article, we will provide three key stats ahead of the showdowns this weekend.
AFC-Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs
1. Bringing the blitz- In the Week 11 contest in Buffalo, Mahomes burned the blitz by completing 7 of 10 passes for one touchdown and a 117.5 QB rating. However, since week 12, Mahomes did show his vulnerability facing the pressure schemes by completing 56.3% (32nd) of his passes, 81.6 QB rating (25th), 56.3% completion rate, and 6.8 yards per attempt (23rd). In the divisional round, he made the Texans pay for employing the strategy. It will be interesting to see whether they blitz more in this matchup because Lamar Jackson faced pressure on nearly half of his dropbacks last week. If Mahomes handles the blitz, then it could checkmate for the McDermott and the Bills.
2. Targeting Rasul Douglas- All great quarterbacks often look for the open man or the weakest link and take advantage. Bills’ cornerback Russo Douglas falls in the latter category. Douglas has a 122.0 QB rating allowed, 72.9% completion rate, and 8.8 yards per target allowed. In the week 11 matchup, Mahomes capitalized on Douglas’ struggles by completing all 5 passes with a 133.8 QB rating. The Bills will be hoping Rasul returns to form because in last year’s playoff matchup, he recorded two interceptions and one pass breakup. Only time will tell which version shows up on Sunday Night.
3. Stopping the Run- The Chiefs’ defense has struggled to contain the run game since week 15, allowing 146.4 rushing yards per game, 5.2 yards-per-carry average, and four rushing touchdowns. In the final six regular-season games, the Bills averaged 153.2 rushing yards per game with 2.3 rushing touchdowns per game and a 5.0 yards-per-carry average. On the other hand, the Chiefs offense has struggled to run the football. Baltimore gashed them for 176 yards and a 5.9 yards-per-carry average in the Divisional Round. One of these units will come out on top, but who will win?
NFC-Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles
1. Don’t blitz this rookie QB-rookie quarterbacks usually fold under the pressure of a blitz package in the NFL. However, Jayden Daniels has proven that he is no ordinary rookie and has burned defenses that blitz. Daniels has a 105.5 QB rating (7th), 13 passing touchdowns (6th), and a 65.7% completion rate (9th) against the blitz. Jayden can read, react, and dissect the holes created by the vacant defender.
2. Commanders’ defensive leaky faucet- the Washington Commanders are one of the worst defensive units against the rush. This past season, the unit allowed 137.5 rushing yards per game (30th), 4.8 yards-per-carry allowed (28th), and a 42.9% Rush Success Rate (24th). The Commanders have allowed four opponents to exceed 200-plus yards with 2-plus touchdowns and averaged at least 5.4 yards per carry. Therefore, look for the Eagles to exploit this vulnerability with Saquon Barkley charging out of the backfield.
3. Go Big or Go Home-most teams punt on fourth down based on the risk of not converting and turning over the ball to the opponent. However, Dan Quinn and the Commanders have flinched from this bold strategy. The offense has converted 20-for-23 attempts on fourth down in the regular season, which is 14.3 percent higher than the second-best team. The team was 3 of 4 last week in being unwavering in their strategy to shock Detroit at home. Washington will enter the NFC Championship Game with an 81.3 percent conversion rate on fourth down, which is the highest in the NFL since 2018. Dan Quinn will not flinch in those scenarios on Sunday.