The opening day of the NFL season is one of the most anticipated events on the sports calendar. All 32 teams have a clean slate and are optimistic that it will be their year to win the Lombardi. If you dominate in week 1, it validates your belief and sends a message to the rest of the league that you are a force to be reckoned with this season. If you start with a loss, it is not the end of the world if you remember the Buccaneers from last year. After losing by 11 points to the Saints in week one, they struck back with a win in week two against the Panthers by 14 points and ultimately won the chip. So momentum is built by a win in week one but it is not a death knell if you lose the opener. One of the tantalizing games on opening weekend is the Miami Dolphins’ visit to Foxboro to face the Patriots. In this article, we will preview the game by looking at the game plan of both teams, what history tells us, and make a bold prediction.
1. New England’s game plan-the Patriots game plan will center on running the football on offense and taking the pressure off Mac Jones to throw the football in his first start. If the Patriots can run the ball, it will allow Jones to play-action fake and hit passes to Jonnu Smith, Hunter Henry, and their wide receiving crew. On defense, it will be interesting to see if this ferocious front seven can get after Tua Tagovailoa and force him to make plays under duress.
2. Miami’s game plan-the Dolphins need to protect Tua and give him a clean pocket to operate. Good protection will allow the quarterback to take advantage of the Patriots’ defensive weakness which is in their secondary. The Patriots will be without Pro Bowl cornerback Stephon Gilmore due to injury for at least six weeks. It is an advantage because the Dolphins could strike with their promising wide receiving duo of Devonta Parker and Jaylen Waddle. It will be interesting to see if Miami can conversely stop the run and confuse Mac Jones on third down due to his inexperience at reading complex schemes.
3. Familiarity breeds contempt- the intensity of the contest will be amplified by the presence of ex-coaches and players now on the other sideline. For instance, Brian Flores was the Patriots’ Defensive Coordinator before moving on to Miami. Former Patriots players now with Miami include backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett, Jason McCourty, and Adam Butler. On the Patriots’ sideline, the ex-Dolphins players are Davon Godchaux and Kyle Van Noy. These two defensive players swapped teams this past offseason. Expect these players to deliver if they see the field because they want to prove a point against their former employers.
4. Head to Head-According to footballdb.com, the Dolphins lead the Patriots historically in their head-to-head matchup by a margin of 57-54. However, in the past two decades from the 2001 season, the Patriots lead their divisional rival by a margin of 26-14. The Patriots are dominant at home against the Dolphins based on a 17-3 record in that same period. It includes a season-opening home win just last season with a final score of 21-11.
5. Bold Prediction-as the stats show the Patriots tend to win this matchup at home. Also, playing before their first home crowd in a regular-season game for nearly 21 months will bring electricity to the contest. I believe the brilliance of both defenses will come to the fore in the first half. However, as the defenses tire, I expect the offenses to catch fire and the Patriots’ firepower bring them to victory.
Final score Patriots 24-Dolphins 15.
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