The NFL is truly a sport where there is parity and surprises every season. No analyst could have predicted that the Cincinnati Bengals and Arizona Cardinals would be the number 1 seeds in their respective conferences at any point this season. Yet, here we are after seven weeks of football, and there are plenty of twists and turns to come. As for my beloved New England Patriots, it feels that this season has been a case of one step forward and two steps back. Hence, we have a 3-4 record heading into Sunday’s clash with the Chargers. After demolishing the Jets 54-13, the Patriots will be feeling confident heading west. On the other hand, for the second consecutive week, they will face a team coming off a bye. That means the team has two weeks to game plan against you and have fresher legs. It certainly did not translate for the Jets last week, and the Patriots will be hoping the same goes for the Chargers this week. In this article, we preview the matchup and make our predictions for the game.
1. The Patriots- The Patriots game plan must center on running the football this week. The Chargers’ defense is last in the league allowing 163 yards per game and nearly 5.5 yards per rush. Damien Harris should carry the load after back-to-back games of 100 plus yards. If the Patriots can create a play-action game, it will neutralize the Chargers’ strength which is in their pass rush and secondary. Look for the Patriots to possess the ball on long drives and keep the ball away from Justin Herbert. The offense also has an advantage on third down because the Chargers rank in the bottom third in the league in stopping teams on third down.
2. Chargers-the pressure will be on the Chargers’ offense to put points on the board given some of the challenges on defense. Justin Herbert has elevated his stature this season, and most recognize him as a top-10 quarterback in the league. The statistics support his case because he has thrown 14 touchdowns and only four interceptions this season. The Patriots’ secondary is the most unpredictable group in this team, and it is hard to gauge from week to week. They will need to be at their best in this outing with the plethora of weapons at Herbert’s disposal. It includes Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, Austin Eckler, and Jared Cook. The question that Bill Belichick needs to solve is, can they generate a pass rush on Herbert? The Chargers’ offensive line is potent because it has given up less than two sacks per game.
3. Head to Head-according to the football database, the Patriots and Chargers have met in 43 games. In those contests, the Patriots lead the series 26-15-2 over the Bolts. The Patriots have dominated this matchup in the past 14 years with a record of 9 wins to 1 loss. It includes a 45-0 demolition at home last season during Justin Herbert’s rookie season. In last year’s matchup, Herbert completed 26 of 53 passes for 209 yards, 0 touchdowns, and two interceptions. He will be motivated to make amends for his worst performance to date in that game.
4. Stat-Beleive it or not Mac Jones is a rare rookie. The stats prove how he has been thus far. Boston Sports Info tweet the following stat:
Mac Jones ranks among rookie quarterbacks after 7 games played in the Super Bowl era
i. Completion% – 70.5% – 1st
ii. Completion – 174 – 2nd
iii. Attempts – 247 – 9th
iv. Pass Yards – 1,779 – 5th
v. QB Rate – 92.8 – 5th
5. Score Predictions-I think the game will be a high-scoring affair, and it will come down to which defense can make a play or get off the field. I think Bill will have the defense play better in the red zone and not break as much as the Chargers. He has used a similar tactic against the Cowboys and the Buccaneers. The Patriots will aim to dominate possession and wear down this Chargers defense. I hope Bill will trust Mac in a big spot rather than being conservative which has cost us this season. Unlike last season, it will be a hard-fought game but I think the Patriots edges with a win.
Final Score-Patriots 33-Chargers 27