The Patriots have seemingly steadied the ship after a rocky start to the season. At 2-4, many questioned whether this team could ever find their way. The team has regrouped, refocused, and recognized that its strength lies in being a physical team that wins the battle on both lines of the scrimmage. On a three-game winning streak, confidence is growing among the players on the field, and opponents are starting to get nervous in a wide-open AFC. This Sunday, the Patriots will face Bill Belichick’s former team, the Cleveland Browns. The men from the dog pound have an identical 5-4 record heading into week 10 and are right in the thick of the playoff picture. The following is a breakdown of the teams and my score predictions for the game.
1. The Patriots- a key feature in the Patriots’ success in the three-game win streak is the ability of the offensive line to pass protect and create huge lanes in the running game. This week the offensive line will be tested by a Browns pass rush that is 2nd in sacks and 6th in pressure on the quarterback. Myles Garrett should be the priority to block with his league-leading 12 sacks. The spotlight will be on Isaiah Wynn, who needs to protect Mac Jones from Garrett having allowed four sacks all season. The best way to slow down a pass rush is dominating time of possession. Look for the Patriots to establish the run game early and throughout. Unfortunately, Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris have entered the concussion protocol. Whether they will be active for this game will be determined later in the week.
2. The Browns-after relieving themselves of the drama surrounding Odell Beckham Jr’s exit, the Browns went back to their core fundamentals in running the football. Nick Chubb showed why he is probably the second-best running back in football with 14 carries, 137 yards, and 2TDs. The Patriots appear to have dodged a bullet on Tuesday when Chubb tested positive for Covid-19. He could still feature in the game if he has two negative tests within 24 hours. It would leave D’Ernest Johnson as the starter. However, Johnson cannot be under-estimated because as the primary back against the Broncos, he rushed for 146 yards and a touchdown. Baker Mayfield will need a good running game to do play-action fakes against this Patriots defense. Last week, the Patriots were able to hold Christian McCaffery to 52 yards. Mayfield will need to be careful throwing the ball against a ball-hawking Patriots secondary.
3. Head to Head: According to Football Database, the Browns and Patriots have faced each other 25 times. Surprisingly, the Browns have the marginal upper hand in the matchup leading the series 13-12. In the past two decades, The Patriots have beaten the Braves 7 of the last eight games. The last time the two teams met was in October 2019, Tom Brady and the Patriots jumped out to a 17-0 in the first quarter. The Patriots’ defense forced three turnovers from the 1st four drives on the Baker Mayfield-led team. The Patriots ultimately won the game 27-13 at Gillette Stadium.
4. Stat: According to Boston Sports Info, one of the areas the team has improved is in the penalty column. After week 9, the number of penalties and penalty yards now ranks 8th and 10th respectively thru 9 games in 22 seasons under Bil Belichick. So things are not quite as bad as people may think. As the season goes on, the Patriots have been more crips in their execution.
5. Prediction-The Patriots have a better chance of Stevenson and Harris playing than Chubb making an appearance. I think this will be an advantage to the Patriots. I think Jones can have success if he gets the ball out quickly. Also, utilizing a no-huddle or quicker-paced offense will be a good idea against this pass rush. In the end, I feel the Patriots are a little better on offense and defense. Patriots 27-Browns 21.
