It is not the matchup the pundits and analysts picked at the start of the season or even the playoff. Yet, it is the matchup that the basketball world deserves in crowning a champion in 2023. Tonight, the pursuit of the Larry O’Brien trophy begins in Colorado between the Miami Heat and the hometown squad, Denver Nuggets. These franchises do not have flashy household-named players but center around selfless stars and a cohesive unit. These two teams earned the right to battle for the chip but have traveled very different paths. The Heats enter this series battle-tested, having entered the playoffs as the 8th seed by winning the second game of the play-in tournament. Then, they defeated the team with the best record, the Milwaukee Bucks in 5 games and the New York Knicks in 6 games. In the Eastern Conference Finals, the team from Miami was pushed to the limit by winning game seven on the road in Boston to defeat the team with the second-best record. In the Finals, they will face a Nuggets team that has been a juggernaut as the best Western Conference team all season and in the playoffs. Their dominance in the postseason is seen from their 12-3 record so far in the playoffs. They have swept aside Karl Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Anthony Davis, and Lebron James. What are the marquee matchups in this series? Who is the X-factor? And Who will win? We will answer these as we preview the battle for the 2023 NBA Finals.
1. Nikola Jokic versus Bam Adebayo-Jokic is the best player in the series and, remarkably, many questioned the legitimacy of his back-to-back Most Valuable Player Awards. Jokic is averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 10.3 assists in this playoff run, and a stellar performance in the finals would preserve him as the second player in history to average a playoff triple-double with more than five games played. Bam Adebayo is a good defender, but Jokic is a matchup nightmare because of his versatility as a passer, post-up scorer, three-point shooting, and gathering offensive rebounds. Bam must resist the urge to foul Jokic because Miami is thin on the frontline with Kevin Love and Cody Zeller the alternatives. Jokic’s only weakness is from the mid-range, having shot just 34% from the field in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see whether Erik Spoelstra employs a zone to slow down the Joker and whether the Nuggets’ shooters will make them pay.
2. Jimmy Butler versus Aaron Gordon-Jimmy Butler has earned the right to be considered one of the best playoff performers in the history of the NBA. After an injury to Tyler Herro in the first round, Butler has almost single-handedly carried the franchise to the Finals. In the Eastern Conference Finals, it appeared that Butler’s performances dipped due to a lingering injury he sustained to his ankle. Aaron Gordon will likely guard Jimmy Butler of the Nuggets starters, and it should be an interesting battle. Gordon is an inch or two taller than Butler, but Jimmy will test Aaron’s quickness and bite on the pump fakes. Gordon will be daring Butler to shoot the three-point shot, but Butler would be wise to attack from his comfortable spot in the mid-range. Aaron would be wise to avoid any trash talk with Jimmy, and he can rewind the tape to see the last time that happened with Grant Williams in the Eastern Conference Finals.
3. X-Factor-the stage is set for Jamal Murray to cement himself as one of the top players by being brilliant on the national stage. Murray showed flashes of being a potential superstar in this league during the 2020 playoff in leading the Nuggets to the Western Conference Finals. However, he does not get the recognition he likely deserves because of suffering from back-to-back injury-plagued seasons. Murray destroyed any hopes of a Lakers comeback in the Western Finals due to his shot-making and remarkable chemistry with Jokic. There have been reports suggesting Tyler Herro might make an appearance during the Finals, but in his absence, the second-best player on the Heat has been Caleb Martin. Martin averaged 19.3 points, and 6.4 rebounds during the Eastern Conference Finals, and by game seven, he seemed like a buddying All-Star. Caleb showcased his brilliance in catching and shooting three-pointers by averaging 52% from those shots created. He showed strides in his game by attacking the rim and finishing in the midrange for key buckets in Game 7 against the Celtics.
4. Head-to-Head-Going back to the 2018-19 season, the Nuggets are 9-1 against the Miami Heat in the regular season. The one win by the Heat was a game played in the bubble prior to the playoff. In fact, the last time Miami won in Denver was the 2016-17 season. Denver is 8-0 at home this postseason while the Heat are 5-2 at home which means the team that protects home court will hold a decisive advantage in this series.
5. Predictions- I think if the Heat are to win this series, they must win one of the first two games in Denver because I don’t see them winning 4 of 5 games. However, I think the Heat will be unable to grab that vital road win given the grueling nature of the Eastern Conference Series and the Nuggets benefiting from 10 days of rest. The Nuggets will win Games 1 and 2 with the altitude, and their incredible home crowd. I think they will also grab a road win in Miami between 3-4 and finish off the series in Game 5. Unlike the Celtics, Mike Malone will not let this team have a letdown, and their relentless style plus talent will be too much for the Heat. Nuggets win in 5 games and their first NBA championship.