We can all agree, Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals lived up to expectations. The Denver Nuggets roared out of the blocks outscoring the Lakers 72-54 by halftime. Nikola Jokic showed the world why he was a back-to-back MVP by shredding the Lakers’ defense by scoring the ball and setting up his teammates. Jokic was so dominant that a third-quarter shot clock beating heave over Anthony Davis left the former Kentucky big man smiling at the Joker in dismay. The game was over, right? Think again! The Lakers fought back through their defense and timely shot-making from Austin Reaves. Ball arena was on an edge when Lebron James was marauding towards the three-point line down by only three with less than a minute on the clock. However, Lebron missed the game-tying shot, and the Denver Nuggets clung on to win a nerve-wracking Game 1. The biggest question is how will the encore presentation unfold in Game 2. In this article, we look at three critical areas for both teams and make our predictions.
1. Where is the defense?- the matchup between pits the Nuggets’ number one offensive team in the playoffs versus the number one defensive unit in the Los Angeles Lakers. Interestingly, the Nuggets are the number 3 ranked defense and number one overall in net efficiency. Yet, after Game two, both coaches will be watching the tape to dissect how the defense was so bad. The Lakers’ defense gave up 72 points in the first half, and it was hard to believe that they were this bad on defense. The defense was hemorrhaging like a gaping wound because not only did they allow Jokic and Murray to dominate, but a player like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope scored 21 points, and the Nuggets had six players in double figures. On the other hand, the Nuggets gave up 72 points in the second half to almost blow the game. Anthony Davis scored at will to lead the Lakers with 40 points and ten rebounds, while Lebron could play bully ball against Jamaal Murray on the switches. The Nuggets even allowed Rui Hachimura to drop 17 points off the bench, and Reaves looked like the modern-day Jeff Hornacek from beyond the arc. In Game 2, look out for both teams to stress the need to restrict the fast break points and the unnecessary fouls to restrict the opponent.
2. Will Darvin Ham sit D-Lo?- D’Angelo Russell was an important pickup at the trade deadline in propelling the Lakers to this deep playoff run. Russell is a former number 2 overall pick for the purple and gold and in his second stint with the team, has shown himself to be a player who has matured and improved his craft. Russell has made decisive contributions such as his 31-point effort in Game 6 to eliminate the Memphis Grizzlies. However, in Game 1, Russell struggled to stay on the floor scoring only eight points, 4 of 8 from the field while playing only 26 minutes. Even more jarring for the Lakers, is that he appeared to be a defensive liability against every Nuggets player who attacked him on switches. It resulted in the Lakers’ point guard having the worst plus-minus in the game with a -25. It will be interesting to see if Coach Ham decides to bench D’Angelo and play Hachimura whose presence in the lineup propelled the team to make the comeback.
3. Factoring the Joker-Nikola Jokic proved he was the best player on the court in Game 1. In the most anticipated matchup against Anthony Davis, Jokic was able to take advantage and proved that he could get to the rim. The Lakers had to do something to counteract the Serbian’s brilliance, and Darvin Ham looked to his bench by putting Rui Hachimura on Jokic. Hachimura was able to bang down low with Jokic, and when he went to make the shot, Anthony Davis would come to help and force a tough shot or even block the shot. Davis is allowed to roam in the defense because the Lakers are gambling that Aaron Gordon will not make them pay from the three-point line. It will be interesting to see whether Ham goes to the matchup from tipoff in Game 2 or if he will save it for later in the contest. Nuggets Coach, Mike Malone, may counter the move by involving Gordon in pick-and-roll with Jokic or in dribble handoffs to force Davis to guard him. The chess match from the sideline will be fascinating to watch.
Predictions-I have the Lakers winning in 6, and if they are going to achieve that feat, then they must win Game 2 on the road. I think the Lakers discovered a recipe for success in Game 1 on defense, but Denver’s defense got somewhat exposed in the first matchup. I think the Lakers win a hard-fought Game 2.