In a city that celebrates glitz, glamour, and showtime, Las Vegas will be the epicenter of the world when the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs clash on Sunday for the right to be forever known as Super Bowl LVIII champions. Off the field, some viewers will watch the game to see the million-dollar commercials or the Apple Music halftime show featuring R&B superstar, Usher. Some will even watch to catch every camera angle and emotion from Taylor Swift. On the field, the game promises to be a tight contest between two teams with star power on both sidelines. We still stick to the on-the-field analysis, and in this article, we will preview who has the advantage in head-to-head battles and predict the winner.
1. Quarterbacks
The most important position in an NFL game is the quarterback position, and the game will feature 2 of the top ten best in the league, Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy. Yes, I said it for the Brock Purdy critics! I believe Purdy had a better regular season than even Mahomes. Purdy completed 69.4% of his passes for 4,280 yards, 31 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions and outpaced Mahomes in all these statistical categories. In the playoffs, despite adversity in his two playoff matchups, Purdy has engineered comebacks to get his team over the in line and doing it at times with his legs. Yet, many consider the Iowa State product a “game-manager” which is absurd. However, I still Mahomes has the decisive edge in this matchup because he has elevated his play in the post-season. In his three playoff games, Mahomes has completed 68.0% of his passes, for 718 yards, four touchdowns, sacked twice, and thrown zero interceptions. These are not gaudy statistics, but Mahomes has been efficient, making big plays and leading his team to back-to-back wins on the road for the first time. With a 14-3 in the playoffs and a shot at football immortality, it is hard to bet against him not doing whatever it takes to win on Sunday.
Advantage: Chiefs
2. Offensive Skilled Position
The skilled position players for the Kansas City Chiefs received much criticism in the regular season because they led the league with 44 dropped catches in the regular season. What made matters worse was how critical those drops in the fourth quarter of games that cost the team wins. However, in the postseason, every skilled position player has elevated their play in following Mahomes lead. Travis Kelce has grabbed 23 catches, 262 yards, and three touchdowns in three playoff games. The Chiefs run game led by Isiah Pacheco has dominated teams with 63 carries, 254 yards, and three touchdowns in this playoff run. The much-maligned Marquez Valdez-Scantling even made the 34-yard game-winning catch to end the hopes of the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game. Despite the improvements by the unit, I still think the 49ers players have the edge in this category. Christian McCaffery is the best running back in the league and won the Offensive Player of the Year Award after tallying 1,459 yards on 272 yards and 14 touchdowns. Purdy has a Tight End equally as good as Kelce in George Kettle. Also, the combination of Deebo Samuels, Brandon Aiyuk, and Kyle Juszczyk makes the 49ers skilled position players the best in the league.
Advantage-49ers
3. Defense
This will be a battle of the second and third-best defenses from the regular season. In the Patrick Mahomes era, the 2023 unit is the best defense he has played alongside. It feels like they have elevated their play in the playoffs because they have held three top-10 offenses in the Dolphins, Bills, and Ravens to 48 points. The defense can execute the game plans from week to week and maximize the results by creating sacks, forcing fumbles, and interceptions. On the other hand, it feels like the 49ers defensive performance has declined in the playoffs. The defense struggled against the run by allowing 136 yards and 182 yards against the Packers and Lions. However, the defense has allowed the team to come from behind in the second half. They can’t afford to fall behind Mahomes in the Super Bowl by too many points, and they should respond after getting called out by defensive coordinator, Steve Wilks. I still trust the Chiefs’ defense based on consistency.
Advantage-Chiefs
4. Coaching
Coaching is an integral part of winning the Super Bowl, and this matchup will be a nice chess match between Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan. Kyle Shanahan is under pressure to win because his team has faltered at this stage twice. Shanahan was the Offensive Coordinator of the Atlanta Falcons when they failed to run the ball and allowed the New England Patriots to climb out of a 28-3 deficit to win Super Bowl LI. Four years ago, in Super Bowl LIV, the 49ers led 20-10 entering the fourth quarter before allowing 21 unanswered points to lose to the Chiefs. On the other hand, Andy Reid is the master of game planning after a bye week with a 28-5 record all-time with two weeks to prepare. The only caveat for the 49ers is that Andy did lose to the Eagles this year after their regular season bye. Still, I think Reid has the advantage on Sunday because he has greater experience in getting his team over the line at the Super Bowl.
Advantage-Chiefs
5. Special Teams
So many of these tight games come down to which place kicker can make their field goals late in the fourth quarter. Adam Vinatieri became a legend in New England because of his ability to make field goals under pressure. I think the Chiefs have the advantage in this category because Harrison Butker converted 33 of 35 (94.3%) of his attempts this season. It makes him the second most accurate kicker in the regular season after Nick Folk with at least 30 attempts. In the playoffs, he has made all seven attempts making him ultra-reliable in the clutch. On the other hand, rookie Jake Moody converted 17 of 21 attempts (84%) in the regular season and has made 3 of 5 attempts in the postseason. The Chiefs have a clear advantage if this game is to be decided by a field goal in the waning seconds of a close game.
Prediction: I think the Chiefs have the advantage in four of the five categories discussed. It doesn’t mean the 49ers will not be competitive in this game. I think it will be a thriller, but I cannot bet against Patrick Mahomes again. I think he will lead his team on a late drive, and Harrison Butker will make a last-second field goal to win it. The Chiefs will win their 3rd Super Bowl in five seasons.
Chiefs 23-49ers 20
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