“What does having the first 30 points, 20 rebounds, and 10 assists game in NBA Finals history mean to you?” Lisa Salters fired off this question to Nikola Jokic in his postgame interview after his historic performance in the 109-94 win over the Miami Heat. This is the kind of question that would tee up the self-indulgent modern-day athlete to gloat. However, Jokic is an outlier and provided a nonchalant response, “I’ll be honest, not much.” As an NBA fan, the response was cold-blooded because the Joker made it seem like it was just another day in the park, but the reality was otherwise. Jokic had a career-signature performance in Game 3 because he dominated the Heat on both ends of the floor. The heroics have propelled the Nuggets to a 2-1 lead in the 7-game series, and Game 4 is tonight in Miami. In this article, we preview the action and predict a winner for the contest.
1. Miami has to slow down Murray- the Nuggets benefited from a historic duos performance in Game 3 to take the advantage in the series. Jokic and Jamal Murray became the first duo to record a 30-point triple-double in NBA history to etch their names in the record books. The Heat cannot afford to allow the tandem of Murray and Jokic to dominate proceedings. The Joker has proven that he is unstoppable in this series averaging 33.3 points, 14 rebounds, and 9.3 assists. Therefore, for the Heat to have a chance to win this game or series, they have to make things difficult for Jamal Murray to score the basketball. In Game 2, Spoelstra trapped Murray and forced him to make passes out of a double team. Murray still finished with ten assists but only scored 18 points compared to the 30 he scored in Game 3. Miami must get more physical, and active on the defensive end, especially on Murray to extend this series.
2. Where is the signature Jimmy Butler performance-the Miami Heat must see this game as must win if they are going to extend this series and need a virtuoso performance from their best player, Jimmy Butler. Butler has averaged only 20.7 points in this series with a high of 28 points in Game 3. However, Jimmy’s performances have tailed off after scoring 42, 56, and 35 points in the round 1 upset of the Milwaukee Bucks. Butler did win the Eastern Conference Finals MVP award, but his best performance was in Game 1 scoring 35 points. Miami needs an aggressive number 22 in Game 4 who is looking to score, and punish small defenders not named Aaron Gordon. An aggressive Butler gets to the free throw line, and it has dropped in this series to just 3.7 attempts per game compared to 7.7, 10.6, and 9.6 in three previous series. The Heat will need a signature performance from their leader, and he usually delivers when it matters most.
3. The battle of the role players-NBA playoff games tends to swing in favor of one team based on the output of the supporting cast. In Game 2, Duncan Robinson stepped up in the 4th quarter to score 10 points as Miami mounted a comeback to even the series. In Game 3, Christian Braun delivered an unexpected performance by scoring 15 points on an efficient 7 of 8 from the field. Although a rookie, Braun showed intellect by cutting to the basket as a willing outlet to make layups and had an emphatic dunk to quiet the road crowd. In Game 4, Miami needs their supporting cast of Max Struss, Gabe Vincent, or Caleb Martin to step in shooting the ball from behind the arc and with more success. The trio is part of the reason Miami overcame the Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals, but they have not played near their levels in the NBA finals.
Predictions-I have the Nuggets winning this game because I think for the Heat to win, Jimmy Butler has to score 40-50 points. If the Nuggets did not have a mental lapse in the fourth quarter of Game 2, this series would be heading for a sweep. The Heat do not have an answer for Nikola Jokic through three games, and they won’t suddenly find it for Game 4. I believe it will be a close game and probably the best in this series, but the Nuggets will win a thriller.
Nuggets 112-Heat 109