“We love being in the kitchen. And the AFC North ball is in the kitchen. It’s hot in the North.” Those words are a famous quote from Mike Tomlin, Head Coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers. No doubt your initial reaction to Tomlin is that you likely felt it is a weird variation from Harry Truman’s quote, “If you can’t stand the heat, get out of the kitchen.” However, in 2023 Tomlin’s quote from October 2020 is validated when analysts project the landscape of the AFC North Division. There is a scenario that all four teams could challenge for a playoff spot, and the winner will likely be determined in the last week of the regular season. Which chef and crew will be the last one standing in the kitchen? In this article, we preview the race and predict the likely records of each team.
1. Cincinnati Bengals: 12-5
The Bengals started last season with a shaky 2-3 record but quickly became one of the best teams in the league by winning 10 of their last 11 games to close the regular season. Bengals fans will be wondering whether the past two seasons were their best opportunities or if there will be another chance right around the corner heading into the 2023 season. After back-to-back division titles and a Superbowl appearance, the team was favored by many to go on the road and win the AFC Championship game. In fact, they had won three straight games against Kansas City. However, Patrick Mahomes would not be denied, and despite a gimpy leg propelled his team to a remarkable victory to break the hearts of Ohioans. The offense returns with most of its core still in place with Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins forming one of the most formidable quartets in the league. They also improved the protection around Burrow by signing offensive tackle Orlando Brown to a 4-year, 64.1 million dollar deal. On the other hand, the defense was a stalwart as the season progressed, and the evidence is holding Baltimore, Buffalo, and Kansas City in the playoffs to just 50 points. The defense should be even better with the return of Sam Hubbard and Troy Hendrickson. I can’t see how Cincinnati does not repeat as divisional champions. It will not be easy, but the Bengals will emerge as the king of the AFC North jungle.
2. Baltimore Ravens: 11-6
Believe it or not, the Ravens led the division for half of the 2022 season and sneaked into the playoffs while missing their starting quarterback, Lamar Jackson. Jackson had an impasse with the organization by failing to agree on an extension to keep the Louisville product in Charm City. However, the team finally settled the matter by agreeing to a 5-year contract worth 260 million that includes 185 million dollars guaranteed. Jackson was likely convinced to re-sign because the team made a splash move by signing Odell Beckham to a 1-year, 18-million-dollar deal. With Beckham in the fold, Jackson becomes even more dangerous with a new number 1 target to add to the presence of Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers, and an electrifying cast of running backs. The defense was much maligned at the start of the season, with Jackson having to pull off heroics to escape with narrow wins. However, the trade for Roquan Smith seemed to turn the unit around by holding offenses to an average of just 16 points in the last seven games. If Jackson can remain healthy, then the Ravens will challenge for the division, and no one will want to face them in the playoffs.
3. Cleveland Browns: 9-8
All eyes will be on the Cleveland Browns this season because the franchise will need to show some progress after another disappointing 2022 season. The team took the controversial step last season by trading for DeShaun Watson and signing him to a lucrative 5-year, 230 million fully guaranteed contract. The Browns faltered in Watson’s absence, going 4-7 during his 11-game suspension. After returning, the team threaded water by going 3-3 to end the season. However, heading into the new season, Jackson and the organization are under pressure to deliver, and Deshaun needs to return to production before his off-the-field saga when he was a top 5 quarterback in the league. The Browns have the tools to help on offense with Nick Chubb in the backfield, Amori Cooper, Elijah Moore, Donavan Peoples-Jones, and David Njoku to catch the football. Also, the defense will return the dangerous Miles Garrett, who tallied 16 sacks last season. If everything falls into place, the Browns could challenge for a wild card spot in the crowded AFC field. However, failure to achieve that feat will leave the organization reeling and pondering its next step.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers: 8-9
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a team in transition after the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger before the 2022 season. Remarkably, the team exceeded expectations last season to finish 9-8 and narrowly missed the chance to nab a wild card spot. The team enjoyed a late surge in the standings by winning 5 of its last six games but their hopes in 2023 will be on the shoulders of their sophomore quarterback, Kenny Pickett. Pickett had an indifferent rookie season with 2,404 yards, seven touchdowns, and nine interceptions. Pickett will have the help he needs in a stud running back in Najee Harris and young talent in Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Prat Freiermuth. The defensive line is still ferocious, led by T.J. Watt and Cameron Hayward. T.J. missed seven games last season after a freakish pec injury, and a healthy Watt is a problem for any offense. Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season in 16 seasons as the Steelers Head Coach but in this division, I think it will be tough to climb the mountain this year, and the streak ends barely.