It’s over, ladies and gentlemen! Those words were famously said by legendary basketball player and TV analyst, Kenny Smith, after Vince Carter sealed the 2000 dunk contest to leave no doubt who was the winner. After a wire-to-wire Game 1 victory, it felt the NBA community had a Kenny Smith moment by thinking it was over! The Nuggets were going to romp to their first championship in franchise history. Through three-quarters of Game 2, it appeared that the script was playing out exactly as predicted as the Nuggets enjoyed a 7-point lead heading into the 4th quarter. However, an unlikely hero stepped up for the Heat in Duncan Robinson by scoring ten straight points in the fourth quarter to stun the rocky mountain home crowd. The series is now tied 1-1, and the scene for the finals now shifts to beautiful South Beach for Games 3 and 4. In this article, we will preview Game 3 and predict the winner.
1. Turning Jokic into a scorer- Erik Spoelstra made a lineup change in Game 2 by inserting Kevin Love into the starting lineup. Another slight adjustment is that it appeared Miami let Nikola Jokic play his defender straight up rather than force a double team allowing Jokic to pick them apart. Jokic took on the challenge scoring 41 points,16 of 28 shooting from the field, and 11 rebounds. However, it felt as if the heavy scoring did not allow his teammates to have any rhythm, and by the fourth quarter, his teammates were cold from the field. The strategy appeared to pay off because the Serbian recorded only four assists in the game. The four assists were the lowest the Joker has dished out in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see how Mike Malone makes the necessary adjustments to get his team clicking on the offensive end.
2. Heat’s attack by committee-the Miami Heat proved once again that they are one of the most resilient groups to make an NBA Finals run. Jimmy Butler has led the way, but the Heat are dangerous because each player relishes the opportunity to deliver for the franchise. It feels as if every player throughout playoffs has enjoyed a signature performance. In Game 2, Butler only scored 21 points, but the team pulled off the victory in altitude thanks to contributions from Gabe Vincent Bam Adebayo and Max Strus in scoring a combined 58 points. The Nuggets may be wondering who will be the next unsung hero that emerges in Game 3. It might be Caleb Martin who had a tough Game 2 scoring only 3 points on 1 of 3 shooting from the field. In the playoffs, role players make big contributions at home, and the Nuggets should expect the unexpected.
3. Best defense wins championship-the mantra is one of the few absolute truths from professional sports. Malone admitted this fact in his postgame conference by saying, “Miami came in here and outworked us.” The insertion of Love into the starting lineup allowed Jimmy to guard Jamal Murray. Butler put in a tremendous shift limiting Murray to 18 points and turning him into a willing passer as he dished out a team-high ten assists. Mike Malone will want Murray to be more of an aggressive scorer and will design plays to free him up. However, his biggest concern will be his team’s performance on the defensive end. The Nuggets recorded their third-worst defensive rating of the playoffs in game 2, by allowing too many wide-open shot attempts for the Heat offense, and they took full advantage of those defensive lapses. The team that wins Game 3 and the series will be the one that executes defensively.
Predictions-I think Game 3 is a pivotal juncture in the NBA finals, and the statistics support this conclusion. This series marks the 41st time in NBA Finals history that the teams have split the first two games, and in 32 of the previous 40 or 80% of the time, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the title. I think Denver will respond on the road with a dominant performance from the dynamic superstar duo and pull away late in the fourth quarter.
Nuggets 117-Heat 110.